Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two essays that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
